Top Cites 2009

Travis Brooks of SLAC’s SPIRES database has a blog posting today announcing the availability of various lists of the high energy physics papers most heavily cited during 2009. A full matrix of links to this data is here, data broken out by arXiv subfield is here.

It’s hard to over-emphasize how much the particle theory parts of these lists are dominated by classic papers on AdS/CFT, in particular Maldacena’s original 1997 paper. It now has over 6600 citations and during the next year or so should pass Weinberg’s 1967 paper as the most heavily cited particle physics paper of all time. One remarkable thing about this paper is that in recent years the number of citations of it has increased to new highs, reaching 731/year in 2008. Even at the height of theoretical activity surrounding the Standard Model back during the late 1970s, none of the classic papers of that subject (such as Weinberg’s) reached even half the citation rate of the Maldacena paper. Similarly, during the explosion of interest in string theory after 1984, none of the papers from the first superstring revolution reached half the Maldacena rate.

Among the top 25 entries in the 2009 overall top-cite list, the leading theory papers are 97-98 AdS/CFT classics at positions 3, 8 and 9, as well as Randall-Sundrum extra dimension papers from 1999 at 14 and 20. Among the top 50 entries, there are only two hep-th papers that are not from the last millennium: at number 33 one of the papers on superconformal Chern-Simons/supergravity duality, and Horava’s Lorentz-breaking gravity proposal at number 38 (there’s a very recent article about this at FQXI).

Looking just at the articles cited in hep-th during 2009, gauge-gravity duality is again completely dominant. The top 3 are AdS(5)/CFT(4) classics , the rest of the top 9 are about the lower dimensional AdS(4)/CFT(3) case (except for an AdS/CFT review article). To find something not about gauge-gravity duality, one has to go down to number 10, the KKLT paper that set off the landscape craze.

Taking a look at recent hep-th lists of postings, there seems to be no let-up in the AdS/CFT dominance. The only recent paper on another topic that seems likely to make the top ten of the 2010 listings is Erik Verlinde’s January paper on entropic gravity, which two months later already has 40 citations.

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First Hint That the Multiverse Really Exists

Multiverse mania rolls along, with New Scientist this week running a cover story entitled Touching the Multiverse. They advertise the story by claiming that “we reveal the first hint that the multiverse really exists”.

It turns out that this is a promotional effort for the work of Raphael Bousso, with the first hint that multiverse really exists a paper of his from more than 3 years ago that purports to “predict” the observed value of the cosmological constant. This in some way improves on Weinberg’s 1987 anthropic argument, which to this day remains about the only piece of evidence backing up multiverse mania. The New Scientist article also reports on his more recent attempts to better justify the 3 year-old calculation with this decade’s buzz-word (“entropic principle”) as well as that of the last decade (“holographic”).

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LHC Update

Beam commissioning has started for 2010, with beam back in the LHC starting early Sunday morning. The plan is for roughly a month until colliding beams at 3.5 TeV/beam.

For the latest news, see here and here.

Update: Please, everyone, stop e-mailing me and posting comments here with the “news” (e.g. here or here) that the LHC will shutdown for a year or more in the future to fix bad splices. This is not news, it was announced by CERN back in January (see here).

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The Quants

The third book I recently read that has some math or physics content is Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson’s The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It. It’s a very lively and entertaining telling of a story which features quite a few mathematicians who have gone on to make (and then sometimes lose) absurd amounts of money using mathematical models to try and exploit market inefficiencies. Jim Simons and his large group of mathematicians and other Ph.D.s at Renaissance play a significant role, and among other mathematicians who make an appearance is Neil Chriss, co-author of Representation Theory and Complex Geometry, one of the most well-known books on geometric representation theory (now available as a “Birkhauser Classic”).

Patterson’s story emphasizes heavily the relationship to gambling. He writes extensively about Ed Thorp, who developed the theory of card-counting, did well with this at casinos, then moved on to the hedge fund business. Just about everyone profiled in Patterson’s book is described as having read and been inspired by Thorp’s 1962 book on card-counting (Beat the Dealer). Many of them are serious poker players, and the book opens by describing the scene at the one of the recent Wall Street Poker Night Tournaments. These are yearly events (Chriss and Simons are among the organizers) that bring together quants and professional poker players to play high-stakes poker, with proceeds donated to Math for America.

The subtitle of the book puts the blame for the financial crisis on this kind of activity, but there’s not much evidence given to justify this. Most of the book is about various hedge funds, and the stories of failure are pretty much the same old story of Long Term Capital Management’s failure back in 1998. Finding some sort of market inefficiency and exploiting it tends to work for a while, but sooner or later either others start doing the same thing or patterns change, sometimes very quickly. If one has gotten greedy and started using too high levels of leverage, one can get in trouble fast. The best-run hedge funds (for instance, Renaissance) managed to stay out of trouble, others didn’t. How much of a public problem all this is remains unclear. To a large extent the failures just lead to some rich people (and universities like Harvard) becoming less rich, while some hedge-fund owners and employees see their income go down but get to keep the fees earned while they were taking too much risk. It’s very clear why a lot of mathematicians and physicists go into this.

None of this though seems to have had a determining part in the disastrous financial crisis of recent years and its ongoing effects. The book has little to say about a more significant failure that involved a different group of quants, those responsible for the bad mathematical models used to justify the mortage securitization business. From what I can tell, there the story is that if there’s a lot of money to be made creating a financial instrument carrying large risks obscured by complexity, it’s not hard to find people willing to help you sell it by creating bad mathematical models of its behavior.

The story of The Quants is a remarkable one, whether or not the people described have some responsibility for the current state of the financial industry and the dangers still embedded in it. While reading the book I couldn’t help thinking that it would be a good idea if the best of them would play a little less poker and take on another pro bono task, that of coming up with a good understanding of the current pathologies of the financial system, and models useful in the task of figuring out how to change it to something more socially desirable.

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The Edge of Physics

The second book about physics or math that I finished reading recently is Anil Ananthaswamy’s The Edge of Physics: A Journey to Unlock the Secrets of the Universe. The author has a blog devoted to the topic of the book, as well as a web-site, which includes some wonderful photos of the experiments discussed.

The bulk of the book is devoted to the author’s description of his travels to visit experimental projects around the world devoted to learning more about cosmology, particle physics, dark matter and dark energy. These include CDMS at the Soudan Mine in Minnesota, the Lake Baikal neutrino telescope in Siberia, the Very Large Telescope at Cerro Parranal in Chile, Mauna Kea in Hawaii, the Square Kilometer Array in South Africa, BESS at McMurdo Bay and IceCube at the South Pole in Antarctica, as well as the LHC and Planck satellite. Ananthaswamy is a quite good writer, and does an excellent job of describing the settings of the experiments and what they are trying to measure, as well as the scientists who are working on them.

Unfortunately though, he doesn’t stick to the impressive experimental story going on, but wraps everything in a heavy dose of string theory/multiverse hype. None of the experiments he visited actually are capable of saying anything about string theory or the question of whether or not there is a multiverse. Most of them are investigating subjects like dark matter, which are of great potential interest, but have nothing at all to do with string theory or the multiverse. The only one for which there have been claims of such relevance are cosmological measurements of the spatial curvature of the universe, with Susskind claiming a prediction of the sign (but not the magnitude, experimentally it seems to be zero). This “prediction” actually doesn’t work, see this paper.

It’s too bad that among the string theorists Ananthaswamy interviewed, none included the many prominent ones such as Gross or Witten, or pretty much anyone at Princeton (see for example the book by Gubser reviewed in the previous posting) who could have explained to him the actual situation. So, if you’re interested in what’s going on at the experimental frontiers of this subject, this is a good book to read, as long as you skip all the parts about theory…

Update: Ananthaswamy describes here how decided to deal with the problem of writing about experiments, yet wanting to address string theory.

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The Little Book of String Theory

Back from New Orleans, and there are now three books I’ve read recently that I’ll try and write reviews of. The first is The Little Book of String Theory, by Princeton’s Steve Gubser. The author has a web-site for the book here, and the introduction is available.

While trying to cover a huge amount of complicated material, the book is quite short, with 162 pages of text, in a small format. Gubser has chosen to deal in a radical manner with the problem of deciding whose work to reference, and whose name to mention in connection with various discoveries. There are no footnotes or end-notes, no bibliography of any kind, and no mention of the names of any string theorists, or any living physicists at all for that matter. The history of the subject pretty much only appears in a few of Gubser’s comments about early parts of his own career.

To somehow counterbalance its main focus on a highly sketchy treatment of an intricate and very abstract subject, the book periodically introduces some very concrete and explicit numerical computations, starting with a first chapter devoted to explaining in detail the equation E=mc2. Unfortunately, none of these calculations have anything at all to do with the topic of the book, string theory. The central section of the book, about branes and duality, contains no such concrete calculations, but instead largely consists of page-long paragraphs recounting in words the intricate structures that occur in this subject. I find it hard to believe that anyone not already familiar with this topic will get much out of this kind of discussion.

Gubser intensively uses analogy to try and convey some understanding of the material, and has a fondness for analogies based on his mountain-climbing experience. Here’s an example, based on a climb to the Aiguille du Midi:

The ridge we climbed is famously narrow, heavily trafficked, and snow-covered. For some reason everyone seems to climb it roped up. I’ve never quite approved of the practice of climbing roped when no one is tied to a solid anchor. If one person falls, it’s hard for the others to avoid being pulled off their feet. Usually I think it’s better to trust yourself and climb unroped, or else anchor and belay. But I’ll admit that I climbed the ridge roped up to my climbing partner like everyone else. My partner was a very solid climber, and the ridge isn’t really that tough.

In retrospect, I think that roped teams climbing a narrow ridge provide a good analogy to the Higgs boson, which is one of the things LHC experimentalists hope to discover.

The point here is that the top of the ridge is supposed to be like the unstable maximum at zero of the Higgs potential, but it seems to me that few are likely to get much real understanding out of this kind of analogy. Similarly, the chapter on GR and black holes opens with a chilling story about a fall while climbing near Aspen, but it’s hard to see how it adds much to the reader’s understanding of the subtleties of the modern understanding of gravitation.

The book is advertised as “a non-technical account of string theory and its applications to collider physics.” The last chapter is about recent attempts to use AdS/CFT as an approximate calculational technique in heavy-ion physics. This is Gubser’s specialty, and he does a good job of giving a hype-free explanation of the state of the subject, for instance:

The second reason why it is tricky to compare a prediction of the gauge/string duality with data is that the string theory computations apply to a theory that is only similar to QCD, not to QCD itself. The theorist has to make some translation between one and the other before he or she has a definite prediction to give an experimentalist. In other words, there’s some fudge. The best attempts to handle this translation honestly lead to predictions for the charm quark’s stopping distance that are either in approximate agreement with data, or perhaps as much as a factor of 2 smaller. A similar comparison can be made for viscosity, and the upshot is that the gauge/string duality produces a result that is either in approximate agreement with data, or perhaps a factor of 2 away from agreement.

While giving a reasonable account of the heavy-ion collision story, the description of the relation of string theory to the much more interesting question of what happens in proton-proton collisions at the Tevatron or LHC energy frontier is actively misleading hype. What he is really describing is supersymmetry, and while he begins with the arguable:

Supersymmetry predicts many other particles, and if they are discovered, it would be clear evidence that string theory is on the right track.

he then goes on to claim that:

What is exciting is that string theorists are placing their bets, along with theorists of other stripes, and holding their breaths for experimental discoveries that may vindicate or shatter their hopes…

If it [evidence for supersymmetry] is found, many of us would take it as confirmation of superstring theory

There’s no discussion of the issue of the supersymmetry breaking scale, or acknowledgement of the fact that string theory does not at all require this scale to be low enough for superpartners to be observable at LHC energies. The fact of the matter is that string theory makes no predictions at all about what the LHC will see, and Gubser’s claim that string theorists have some sort of LHC prediction they are betting on is just not true. There is no bet here that string theorists can possibly lose: if superpartners are found, they are likely to trumpet this as “confirmation of string theory”, but if not, they’ll fall back on the accurate statement that string theory predicted nothing about this.

Throughout the book, Gubser is on the defensive about the issue of string theory’s lack of predictivity, invoking highly strained and dubious analogies as excuses. One chapter begins with a discussion of Roman history and its effects on our present-day culture. He then argues that our many centuries remove from this history is somehow like the way string theory makes predictions at high energies, not low energies. I don’t see the analogy (we have lots of evidence for Romans, none for strings), and in any case the problem with string theory is not that it can’t predict what happens at low energies, but that it can’t predict anything at any energy. In another chapter he compares current string theory unification models to the BCS theory of superconductivity, noting that the BCS theory doesn’t work for high-temperature superconductivity. I’m not sure what to make of this analogy, since BCS is a successful theory, string unification models aren’t. The only point of it seems to be the hope that something new will be discovered experimentally (analog of high temperature superconductivity), and some unknown version of string theory will describe it.

Like pretty much all of his colleagues at Princeton, one thing Gubser wants nothing to do with is the multiverse and the anthropic string theory landscape. While he explains the moduli-stabilization problem, the landscape and the multiverse are not discussed, and anthropic argumentation is dismissed with:

Altogether, I find myself unconvinced that this line of argument is useful in string theory.

In the next posting, I’ll write about another new popular physics book, one that I think is much better and much more readable, although it takes the West Coast multiverse interpretation of string theory as gospel, ignoring the views of Gubser and his Princeton colleagues.

Posted in Book Reviews | 7 Comments

Completely Off-Topic

I’m heading off to New Orleans tomorrow morning, will be there for Mardi Gras, back next Wednesday. Light to no blogging for the duration.

Since I’m already off-topic, I can’t resist promoting my friend Alexei Karamazov (aka Mark Ettinger)’s show, which opened last night here in New York at the Minetta Lane theater. The Flying Karamazov Brothers travel the world with a wonderful show that could best be described as demented vaudeville featuring some of the best juggling around. They’re here in New York City for the first time in many years, through March 7. For one of the first reviews, see here. Some of their previous shows featured references to string theory, this one doesn’t. Go to their web-site to learn more, then go buy tickets and help me recoup some of the money I put up as an investor to help make this happen…

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String Theory for Undergraduates at Brown

A few years ago various US universities decided it was a good idea to offer a course on string theory for undergraduates (see here), but in recent years most of these seem to have been dropped from the curriculum. Brown University is going in the other direction, offering Physics 1970C, String Theory for Undergraduates, this semester. A report from a Brown undergraduate on Lubos’s blog gives me some encouragement to continue blogging:

Life is carrying on naturally. In fact, if I hadn’t been reading eg woit’s blog, I would’ve suspected we’re still in the middle of a stringy revolution! We even just started a new string theory course for undergrads, and I and quite a few other undergrads held a string theory seminar. Interest in stuff like LQG is completely zero. So in the press you have woit, smolin blahblahblahing, ok. But in the meantime, you have ads/cft, and the whole twistor reformulation of yang mills in terms of contour integrals over grassmannians (inspired by twistor string theory). Even condensed matter physicists accept string theory as one of the greatest things that happened to physics.

The undergraduates at Brown have a String Theory Study Group, Facebook group here.

Update: The undergraduate string theory courses are now facing some competition. LSU is offering an undergraduate Introduction to Loop Quantum Gravity.

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LHC Update

A new schedule for operation of the LHC is out. It has sector tests of injection into the LHC starting the evening of Feb. 17, circulating beams again around Feb. 22, about 6 weeks for beam commissioning, then physics starting April 5. On October 18 the LHC would be stopped for two weeks to set up ion beams, which would then run for four weeks, with an end-of-year stop starting Nov. 29.

Last year there there was an estimate of about 10 days to establish collisions at 3.5 TeV/beam, but the latest estimate is more conservative, about 25 days. So, at the earliest, probably about March 4, more likely around March 19. Complicating the matter is CERN’s plan to have first collisions broadcast worldwide on LHC First Physics Day, which is supposed to be a mid-week day announced a week in advance. So, the beam commissioning team is going to have to first get to the point where collisions are possible, then spend the next week of work being very careful to avoid stray collisions that one of the experiments might pick up and someone might blog about…

CMS collaboration members were asked for their best estimates of when first collisions would occur, with results plotted here. Lots of optimists voted for around March 1, the date that got the most votes was April 1.

Posted in Experimental HEP News | 3 Comments

Expanding Crackpottery

Lubos Motl is getting rather concerned (yes, I know about what pops up when I link to his blog…) about recent trends in theoretical physics, especially the implications of recent work (discussed here) of well-known string theorist Erik Verlinde. He claims that many other string theorists share his concern:

The people whose knowledge and opinions about physics are close to mine are finally beginning to realize the worrisome trends affecting the quality and character of the research in theoretical physics. I have a significant number of e-mail exchanges with these folks – and let me assure everyone that you’re not alone.

In many ways I also share Lubos’s concern. Like lots of people, over the years I’ve been deluged with examples of what I’ll call “unconventional physics”, in a spectrum ranging from utter idiocy to serious but flawed work. Much of it shares the all-too-common feature of making grandiose claims for new understanding of fundamental physics, based on vague ideas that often use not much more than a few pieces of high-school level physics and mathematics. The beautiful and deep physical and mathematical ideas that go into the Standard Model are ignored or thrown out the window. In many cases, it’s hard not to suspect that the authors have decided that they can replace modern physics, without bothering to take the trouble to learn what it is. This kind of thing is pretty easy to quickly identify and decide to ignore, and it ends up having no impact on the scientific research community.

In recent years though, some theorists who definitely understand and have made contributions to modern physics have started promoting research which looks depressingly like the typical sad examples of “unconventional physics”. Many of the products of the ongoing multiverse mania fit into this category. Lubos is getting quite worried to see that a very talented and well-known leader of the string theory community, Erik Verlinde, seems to be engaging in this sort of research, and getting positive attention for it. Within a month of its appearance, Verlinde’s “Entropic Force” paper has already generated a dozen or so preprints from other physicists on the same topic. It could easily end up being the most influential (in the sense of heavily referenced) paper of 2010. Seeing this coming from a string theorist he admires is worrying Lubos and his correspondents.

While I agree with Lubos that this is something worth worrying about, his interpretation of the problem is characteristically irrational. In his posting, he argues that this is all due to the influence of the “notorious crackpots” Lee Smolin and Peter Woit. I don’t see how I’m supposed to be responsible for prominent string theorists taking up dubious lines of research I strongly disagree with, other than perhaps having some responsibility for driving them over the edge. In any case, Lubos concentrates his attack on Lee Smolin, arguing that he’s the one mainly responsible for this, an idea which is completely absurd. While Smolin is surely more sympathetic than I am to research like that of Verlinde, he’s a serious scientist and not one with a lot of influence over Verlinde and the string theory community. Lubos’s argument that this is all a left-wing plot organized by the far-left radical hippie Smolin is just laughable. One merciful thing about the string wars always was that positions people took were uncorrelated with their political ideology, keeping politics out of it.

Unlike Lubos though, I’m not convinced that I understand what the source of the problem is. My diagnosis of the current state of the field remains what it was when I wrote my book quite a few years ago: the lack of relevant experimental data coupled with the faddish pursuit of a failed idea about unification has led to a disturbing situation. In a very deep sense though, I just don’t understand why talented physicists react to this by engaging in things like anthropic string landscape research, or vague arguments about “entropic forces”. Lubos is right to notice that this situation has recently become more disturbing. A debate about the causes of this involving people more sober than Lubos would be a good idea. Twenty-some years of string theory hype in the scientific literature and popular press did a lot of damage, and if this gets replaced by hype of ideas even more dubious than string theory unification, things will go from bad to worse. Maybe the LHC will save us, but if this is what it takes, it looks like we’re stuck for a few more years.

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