More Higgs Non-News

The latest Higgs non-news is that there is news about when there will be news. The Scientific Policy Committee at CERN will meet on December 12 and 13, with the agenda for December 13 featuring a 15 min presentation by the CERN Director-General on “CERN plans for communications on the Higgs boson search at the LHC” in the morning. This will be followed in the afternoon by a public event including half-hour updates on the SM Higgs searches from each of the experiments, and a “joint public discussion” about what it all means.

Before the LHC I tended to be 50/50 on the odds for a SM Higgs vs. no SM Higgs. As data has come out during the past year, and rumors have arrived in recent months, my take on these odds has gone back and forth. First it looked like maybe there was a 140 GeV Higgs, then not. Then I was hearing that nothing was being seen by either experiment, followed by rumors about something being seen by one, but not the other, making a SM Higgs start to look unlikely. Lately though, I’m starting to hear that maybe both experiments are seeing something in the Higgs to gamma-gamma channel. Is it at the same mass? What’s the statistical significance if you combine the results? Looks like we’ll hear about this on December 13 (unless someone leaks the news to a blogger first…).

For now, I’m back to 50/50. According to the latest Higgs coverage in the New York Times, back in 2005 Frank Wilczek was willing to give 10/1 odds in favor of the Higgs (although he wants a SUSY version), at least if the stakes were in Nobel chocolate coins.

Update: This month’s Physics World has a long article by Matthew Chalmers (not available free online I think, see here) about the search for SUSY. In includes details about David Gross’s SUSY bet (with Ken Lane):

SUSY is “alive and well” according to the Nobel-prize-winning physicist David Gross of the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics in Santa Barbara, who helped to create quantum chromodynamics – the theory of the strong
force. “People shouldn’t pay too much attention to the bounds now because it’s signals that matter,” he told Physics World. “When will I give up on SUSY? I have a serious bet with Ken Lane that it will be found after 50
inverse femtobarns [of data],” he says.

The LHC won’t accumulate that amount of data until quite a while after it comes back up at or near design energy in 2014. So, it looks like Gross won’t have to pay off his gambling debts until 2015 or so.

Posted in Experimental HEP News | 30 Comments

The Ultimate Guide to the Multiverse

Yet another cover story about the Multiverse can be found this week at New Scientist, which calls it The Ultimate Guide to the Multiverse. As just one more in a long line of such stories over the last decade, a trend that shows no signs of slowing down, one can be pretty sure that this is not yet the “ultimate” one, nor even the penultimate one.

The content is the usual: absolutely zero skepticism about the idea, and lots of outrageous hype from the usual suspects (Bousso, Tegmark, Susskind, etc.) We’re told that scientists are now performing tests of the idea, even at the LHC. The LHC test has been a great success: Laura Mersini-Houghton used the multiverse to predict that the LHC would not see supersymmetry, and that prediction has worked out very well so far. There’s a companion editorial Neutrinos and multiverses: a new cosmology beckons, which tells us that the multiverse is now orthodoxy, backed by “almost everything in modern physics”:

The widest crack of all concerns a theory once considered outlandish but now reluctantly accepted as the orthodoxy. Almost everything in modern physics, from standard cosmology and quantum mechanics to string theory, points to the existence of multiple universes – maybe 10500 of them, maybe an infinite number.

If our universe is just one of many, that solves the “fine-tuning” problem at a stroke: we find ourselves in a universe whose laws are compatible with life because it couldn’t be any other way. And that would just be the start of a multiverse-fuelled knowledge revolution…

These are exciting, possibly epoch-making, times.

This past week also saw the premiere of the Multiverse episode of Brian Greene’s Fabric of the Cosmos series on PBS. It’s more or less an hour-long infomercial for the Multiverse, with the argument against it pretty much restricted to some short grumpy comments by David Gross about how he didn’t like it. Brian’s pro-multiverse argument was that many new advances in physics are all pointing to a multiverse, and he showed support for the idea as resting on a three-legged structure. One of the legs was string theory, and I’ve described elsewhere recently how circular reasoning makes this one very shaky.

The multiverse propaganda machine has now been going full-blast for more than eight years, since at least 2003 or so, and I’m beginning to wonder “what’s next?”. Once your ideas about theoretical physics reach the point of having a theory that says nothing at all, there’s no way to take this any farther. You can debate the “measure problem” endlessly in academic journals, but the cover stories about how you have revolutionized physics can only go on so long before they reach their natural end of shelf-life. This has gone on longer than I’d ever have guessed, but surely it has to end sooner or later, and I have no idea what rough beast will slouch onto future covers of New Scientist and episodes of Nova a few years down the road.

Posted in Multiverse Mania | 52 Comments

The Infinity Puzzle

There’s a fascinating new book by Frank Close out this week about the history of the Standard Model, called The Infinity Puzzle. Until now I’ve always recommended The Second Creation, by Crease and Mann, as the best popular book for this history, but Close’s new book gives that one a run for its money. While Crease and Mann is a comprehensive overview, covering theory and experiment, as well as a longer time-frame, Close gives an insider’s look focused on the decade or so that led up to the Standard Model coming together around 1973.

Knowing the history of a subject has always seemed to me an integral part of really understanding it, so I’d argue that anyone who wants to really understand modern particle physics should spend some time with a book like this. In addition, there’s an outside chance we may soon be seeing the collapse of one of the central pillars of the Standard Model, the Higgs field, and if this happens, an understanding of where the Higgs came from may very well be relevant to anyone who wants to think about how to live without it.

About a year ago I spent some time looking into the history of what I think is best called the Anderson-Higgs mechanism, writing a long posting about it here. Particle physicists have long overlooked the fact that it was condensed matter theorist Philip Anderson who not only first understood the basic physics that was going on, but even wrote a paper aimed at explaining it to particle theorists (which they ignored). Anderson’s insights grew out of his work on the BCS theory of superconductivity, a subject in which the role of gauge invariance was not so easily understood. If the Higgs field needs to be replaced, the analogy with BCS theory might provide a clue about what could replace it. Another book I’ve been reading recently is a collection of Anderson’s essays, called More and Different: notes from a thoughtful curmudgeon. Many of the people and topics he discusses there are much less familiar to me, but I confess to enjoying the curmudgeonly tone, and wishing I knew more about the history and physics behind the superconductivity research that he describes. Included in his collection is a review of my book I was very pleased by. His prediction about what the LHC will see is one I’m very sympathetic to: no supersymmetry, and “we will probably discover unexpected complexity in the Higgs phenomenon.”

Anderson is justifiably scornful that the APS awarded the Dannie Heinemann prize [Anderson’s mistake, it was the J. J. Sakurai prize] for work on the Higgs to no less than seven [actually it was six] people, managing to leave out Anderson. Close gives Anderson his due, but also gives by far the most detailed and well-researched account available of the work of Higgs, Brout, Englert, Guralnik, Hagen and Kibble in this area. He puts the most dramatic revelation from his research in a footnote (page 388):

A bizarre coincidence is that on Monday, October 5, just a week before Guralnik, Hagen, and Kibble’s paper was received by the editor of Physical Review Letters in New York, and hence around the time that it would have been submitted to the journal, Peter Higgs gave a seminar about his mechanism at Imperial College. Neither Guralnik nor Kibble has any memory of this, and extensive correspondence between us has failed to shed light on this.

If the Higgs particle does show up at the LHC and the Nobel committee starts debating who should get the prize, this may become relevant. Another thing that I learned from Close that argues for Higgs in this context is that he was the first (in 1966) to write down a model with Yukawas giving masses to the fermions [Oops, this is wrong, my misunderstanding of a footnote that I didn’t check. It was the gauge boson masses being referred to].

Close knows especially well the British cast of characters in this story, and one issue he devotes attention to is the unusual story of J. C. Ward’s eventful career and the question of why Ward and Kibble [as well as Guralnik] weren’t the ones to come up with the Weinberg-Salam model. Ward and Salam had worked on unified electroweak theory, minus the Higgs, and Kibble was very much involved in the Higgs story. One of the factors at play according to Close’s account was Ward’s rather paranoid nature, which made him unwilling to share ideas.

Another Nobel-related part of the book that will likely be controversial is the discussion of Salam’s case for sharing the Nobel with Weinberg and Glashow. This topic recently was raised by Norman Dombey in a preprint on the arXiv (discussed a bit here), which refers to Close’s book. Close gives a detailed description of Salam’s activities around the time he was supposedly doing the Nobel Prize winning work, raising the possibility that he may not have had the right idea independently of Weinberg. One thing that is clear about this particular story though is that no one involved, including Weinberg and Salam, understood the significance of the Weinberg-Salam model at the time.

An argument might be made that the book has quite a lot of “inside baseball”, about who exactly did what, and what people’s relative cases for recognition might be. If you really detest this sort of thing and want nothing but the physics, maybe you should stick to The Second Creation. But, if like me, you’re fascinated by this history and want to learn something new about it, go out and get a copy soon.

Update: I should make it clear that what I wrote here about Salam is my own interpretation of the story, not that of Close. He explains that Salam learned about the Higgs mechanism from Kibble, and had a unified electroweak theory with Ward, so it makes perfect sense that he would come up with Weinberg-Salam, independently of Weinberg, and he was lecturing about something. Still, the lack of any written record of exactly what Salam had pre-Weinberg makes one wonder…

Update: For the first-hand case that Salam did lecture on the Weinberg-Salam model pre-Weinberg (which is also described in Close’s book) here’s this from Robert Delbourgo:

Dear Peter

There have been murmurs on your blog-site, following Dombey’s article I think, which cast doubt on Salam’s worthiness for the prize. I wish to refute the innuendos and aspersions which are circulating.

I was indeed present at the talks given by Salam on SSB for weak interactions where the famous model was described. Paul Matthews also attended, but being Oct that year, Tom Kibble was away on sabbatical at Rochester. I am prepared to take an oath on that.

It was more than one lecture, but I cannot remember whether it was two or three talks which he gave as it quite long ago. Then I went to the library and spotted Weinberg’s paper, newly arrived, and pointed it out to Salam and urged him to write up his own independent discovery ASAP. Matthews also encouraged him to do so and the first opportunity was the Nobel Symposium. That is the long and short of it.

I hope that ends the the rumours and controversy!!!

Bob Delbourgo

Posted in Book Reviews | 22 Comments

Still Waiting for Supersymmetry

The headline story at the APS Physics site is Still Waiting for Supersymmetry, by Sven Heinemeyer, which reports on a PRL article from CMS reporting no evidence for supersymmetry.

According to Heinemeyer:

It’s important to realize that CMS’s results do not exclude supersymmetric theories. Rather, they only conclusively say one of two things. One possibility is that the CMSSM (the specialized version of the MSSM) is realized in nature, but the supersymmetric partner particles, the gluinos and squarks, are relatively heavy—too heavy to be produced in large numbers at the LHC so far…

The other interpretation is even simpler: while supersymmetry is realized in nature, it might not take the form described by the CMSSM, but possibly that of any one of the many (GUT scale) models. Different versions of supersymmetry make different predictions for the outcomes of high-energy proton-proton collisions. Many of these outcomes are more complicated than what is shown in Fig. 1, and to see them would require experiments to investigate many more collisions (and to study them for a longer time). Consequently, in these other models, it will only be possible to place much weaker bounds on the new particle masses (so far, however, no such dedicated analysis has been performed).

I would have thought that there’s an even simpler third alternative: no supersymmetry in nature at all, but I’m not a SUSY phenomenologist…

Posted in This Week's Hype | 41 Comments

Higgs Non-News

The combination of summer ATLAS and CMS Higgs results has finally appeared today (see here and here). This was originally supposed to be ready back in August, and has been circulating in various versions for quite a while. The bottom line (95% exclusion for 141-476 GeV) was mentioned here last week. They also quote limits using a much more stringent standard (99% exclusion for 146-443 GeV, excepting three small regions). Also worth mentioning is the 90% exclusion result, which reaches down to 132 GeV, leaving a SM Higgs possible only within the region 114-132 GeV.

What everyone really wants to know is when the experiments will release results based on the much larger full 2011 data set. Today’s HCP 2011 talk just says:

LHC experiments will analyze the x3 data already collected before 2012 Winter Conferences.

Tevatron will provide the final results on 10 fb^{-1} by the 2012 Summer Conferencences.

On the same time scale, there will be a combination LHC + Tevatron.

On this schedule, a possible 95% Higgs exclusion would not happen before next summer. However… I’ve seen comments from Fermilab that they should have results ready for Moriond in early March, and they expect to be able to rule out the Higgs at 95% (if it isn’t there), over the relevant mass region. More immediately, the LHC experiments have been tasked to provide updates of their Higgs results, including per/experiment combinations, for the CERN Council Week (December 12-16). Rumors from the two experiments indicate that one experiment is seeing no excesses that could be attributed to the Higgs, the other only a very small number of events in one channel (ZZ->4l). It seems not impossible that the results available (publicly or not…) mid-December will come within striking distance of ruling out the Higgs (at 90% or 95% level) over the relevant low mass range.

One interesting aspect of today’s data release is that it agrees closely with what Philip Gibbs put together back in September. For more about this, see here, especially this plot. In the past, many have speculated that the first observation of the Higgs would be reported on a blog. Now, it’s looking not unlikely that a possible exclusion of the Higgs will be first reported at viXra log…

Update: CMS has released a video including footage of their internal discussions back in August when they decided not to release the ATLAS/CMS combination. There’s no real explanation of what changed, but by November people’s concerns had been addressed and they decided to release the combination.

Posted in Experimental HEP News | 31 Comments

Knots and Quantum Theory

A commenter on the last posting pointed to the new video available at the IAS site of Witten’s recent public talk there on Knots and Quantum Theory. The talk is aimed at a general audience, including supporters of the IAS, so it’s rather non-technical. For the technical details behind what Witten is talking about (his recent work on Khovanov homology and QFT), see this survey for mathematicians, a survey for physicists at Strings 2011, and this paper.

For me an interesting part of Witten’s talk was how he described the evolution of his ideas about this topic, and the relationship to geometric Langlands. He also had interesting comments about number theory and the Langlands program, denying any real knowledge of the subject, but arguing that sooner or later (probably later, after his career is over), there would be some convergence of number theory Langlands and physics. He finds the coincidence of geometric Langlands showing up in QFT so remarkable as to indicate that there are deep connections there still to be explored. I suspect that he sees the likely path of information going more from physics to math, with QFT ideas giving insight into number theory. While I agree with him about the existence of deep connections, I suspect the influence might go the other way, with the powerful ideas behind the Langlands program in number theory someday providing some clues about QFT useful to physicists.

Also on the Langlands program topic, this semester we’re having a wonderful series of lectures on the topic by Dick Gross. He’s a fantastically gifted lecturer, and this series is pitched at just the right level for me, explicating many of the parts of the subject I’ve been trying to learn in recent years but have found quite confusing. It’s a beautiful, very deep, but rather intricate subject, bringing together a range of remarkable ideas about mathematics. In the end though, the Langlands program is really mostly about new ideas in representation theory, and since I’m convinced that deeper understanding of QFT will require new ideas about how to handle symmetries, which is the same thing as representation theory, perhaps finding connections between the subjects won’t have to await Witten’s retirement.

Posted in Langlands | 26 Comments

Dijkgraaf Next Director of the Institute for Advanced Study

The IAS in Princeton announced today that Robbert Dijkgraaf will take over from Peter Goddard as director starting next summer.

Like Goddard, Dijkgraaf has devoted much of his career to string theory, more specifically the formal side of the subject, including conformal quantum field theories, topological quantum field theories, and their manifold interesting relationships to mathematical issues. Unlike Goddard, he’s from a later generation, getting his Ph.D. in 1989 and entering theoretical physics after string theory had begun to play a dominant role. His cohort of theorists who entered the subject as Young Turk revolutionaries riding the wave of string theory is now settling into the role of Grand Old Men.

Dijkgraaf is known as a masterful expositor, with pretty much any survey article by him you can find sure to be lucid and very much worth reading. He also has world-class political skills, recently overseeing the review of the IPCC, a topic putting him at the center of the religious war over climate change. His background makes him an ideal choice to lead an institution like the IAS, one with a great history in theoretical physics and mathematics, and an important ongoing role to play in keeping those subjects healthy.

Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments

Models.Behaving.Badly

Emanuel Derman has a fascinating new book out, Models.Behaving.Badly, which I’ve been intending to write about here for a while now. One of the problems that has kept delaying this is that every time I start to write something I notice that a new review of the book is out, and it seems to me quite a bit better than anything I have to say. An example that comes to mind is this review from Cathy O’Neil at mathbabe a while ago, another is a new one out today at Forbes. Any book that attracts so many thoughtful reviews has to be worth reading as well as capturing something important about what is going on in the world.

There is a somewhat frivolous virtue of the book that I haven’t noticed other reviews discussing: the wonderful title. I can’t help but enjoy the double meaning linking two of the out-of-control groups that are features of downtown life here in New York. One might think that drunken fashion models in downtown clubs and quants at financial firms don’t have a lot to do with each other, and yet…

Derman’s first book, My Life as a Quant (which I wrote a little bit about here in the early days of this blog) tells the story of his move from high energy theory into financial modeling. He was one of the first to do this, and that book reflects a time when the financial industry was riding high, with the role of quants and their models relatively uncontroversial. With his new book, he’s also one of the first, this time in his disillusioned but serious look from the inside at where we are today:

I am deeply disillusioned by the West’s response to the recent financial crisis. Though chance doesn’t treat everyone fairly, what makes the intrinsic brutalities of capitalism tolerable is the principle that links risks and return: if you want to have a shot at the up side, you must be willing to suffer the down. In the past few years that principle has been violated.

His focus is on the role that models inspired by physics have played in this debacle, arguing that they have been used in a fundamentally misconceived way, and explaining the evolution of his own understanding:

… I began to believe it was possible to apply the methods of physics successfully to economics and finance, perhaps even to build a grand unified theory of securities.

After twenty years on Wall Street I’m a disbeliever. The similarity of physics and finance lies more in their syntax than their semantics. In physics you’re playing against God, and He doesn’t change His laws very often. In finance you’re playing against God’s creatures, agents who value assets based on their ephemeral opinions. The truth therefore is that there is no grand unified theory of everything in finance. There are only models of specific things.

Much of the book is devoted to explicating his views about the importance of distinguishing between “theories” that are supposed to accurately capture phenomena, and “models”, which are metaphors which which only approximately capture some aspects of phenomena. As examples of theories, he discusses not just QED, the quintessential accurate theory of the physical world, but also Spinoza’s theory of the emotions. Besides the financial models that are the focus of the book, he also covers a wide range of other failed models. The book begins with a short memoir of growing up in South Africa, where he was a member of a Zionist youth organization, and its failed models as well as the racial ones of apartheid played a role in his coming of age.

If you’re part of the modern world which generally finds actual books too long and time-consuming to read, Derman has an often enjoyable blog, and for the truly ADD-afflicted, he also has one of the very few twitter feeds I’ve seen worth following.

Posted in Book Reviews | 12 Comments

Higgs Rumor Roundup

As far as I’ve been able to tell, there’s still nothing definitive one way or the other about the SM Higgs, as the experiments continue to analyze data from the now-finished 2011 pp run. Starting Monday is the HCP 2011 conference which at one point seemed to be a possible venue for announcement of confirmation of hints from early this summer of a Higgs around 140 GeV or so. Those hints disappeared later in the summer, so conventional wisdom recently has been that not much new will come out next week in Paris. A new blog entry from one of the organizers refers to this disappointment, leading to worries about conference attendance, but adds some dramatic and mysterious news at the end. It seems that some experimental collaboration requested a last-minute slot at the conference to unveil a new result that might be the highlight of the conference. They’re on for 15 minutes on Monday, still not announced which collaboration this is, who the speaker is, or what their title is. This may very well have nothing to do with the Higgs: maybe something else travels faster than the speed of light…

At HCP2011, ATLAS will have new results from the H->ZZ->llnunu channel (already released, see here) and from the H->ZZ->llqq channel. Unfortunately neither of these are relevant to the low mass region where the Higgs is believed to be hiding. I don’t know what CMS has up its sleeve. One other thing that will be released is the combination of ATLAS and CMS summer conference data, which will exclude the Higgs at 95% confidence level from 141-476 GeV (and come very close to this exclusion down to about 135 GeV).

It looks like release of new data in the channels that are sensitive to a low mass Higgs will wait longer, until the experiments have had a chance to do some analysis on the entire 2011 data set. Mid-December has been rumored as a date, and a logical bet would be that the CERN Council week would be the time for this, in particular at the Scientific Policy Committee meeting on December 12-13. Rumors going around about this are that there’s still nothing definitive in the crucial H->gammagamma channel, and that in the H->ZZ->llll “golden channel” (very low background), one experiment is seeing no excess at low mass, the other is seeing an excess. Higher quality, better informed rumors are encouraged…

Nature reports here on the discussion at CERN about what to do in the (wonderfully exciting…) event that the SM Higgs is not seen. The first action they’re taking is semantic: if no Higgs is seen at the 95% confidence level, instead of saying that this “excludes” the Higgs, they will announce that it “disfavours” it. So, the first reaction will not be jumping for joy, but a defensive one about how it might still be there.

Whatever comes out in December, I hear the plan is to wait for the Moriond conference at the beginning of March to release a result combining data from all channels (separately for each experiment). The Tevatron may have a result to release then too. Philip Gibbs will then swing into action for the full combination.

Update: Via Philip Gibbs, this talk includes the information that “The CERN DG has requested updates for December council”. Not clear to me if the plan is to release these publicly, or to try and keep them confidential (which may not be easy…).

Update: The mystery new result is from LHCb, a 3.5 sigma observation of CP violation in an unexpected place. Details here, Jester has analysis here.

Posted in Experimental HEP News | 22 Comments

This Week’s Hype

A couple people have pointed me to an article at New Scientist that requires another edition of This Week’s Hype. According to Nuclear clock could steal atomic clock’s crown:

Such clocks could shed light on string theory. The frequency of the jumps in a nuclear clock will depend on the strong nuclear force, while the jumps by electrons in atomic clocks depend on a different fundamental force. So together they could reveal if the relative strength of the forces changes, as string theory has it.

The amusing thing about the string theory “prediction” that relative strengths of forces change over time is that many string theorists promote as a “prediction” exactly the opposite: according to this argument, change in these strengths would imply large changes in the vacuum energy, which we don’t see, so a prediction of the landscape is constancy. See for example here.

Posted in This Week's Hype | 4 Comments